Aviation Is Entering a Pressure Zone

Why SAF matters

Air travel demand is set to double by 2040, yet aviation already accounts for more than 2% of global CO₂ emissions. Long-haul flights cannot run on batteries or purely on hydrogen anytime soon, only Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) can keep fleets flying while cutting emissions.

The problem airlines face

Due to the lack of decarbonization options for aviation, regulators have globally started mandating SAF usage for airlines. Moreover, an increasing number of corporate customers expect SAF to meet their net-zero targets. 

Today’s supply, however, is problematic: bio-SAF, currently at ~€3,000/t, will soon face global supply constraints which will in turn lead to rising prices as regulation is demanding higher volumes. 

By 2030, demand for bio-SAF is expected to far exceed given supply. Scalability is constrained by the limited availability of sustainable feedstocks - plus waste oils and fats used in HEFA pathways are already today near their supply ceiling. Even optimistic assessments suggest these feedstocks could meet only about 10% of global SAF demand. 

Bio-SAF can help reduce emissions in the near term, but it cannot scale to deliver net-zero aviation. This view is echoed by Fraunhofer, EY, the World Economic Forum, and the International Energy Agency. At the same time, eSAF, made from green hydrogen and CO2, is considered the only long-term solution, but currently sits at €>7,000/t, as production technologies are still too costly and lack scale. 

For airlines, this means higher ticket prices for customers, steep premiums or heavy fines. 

In Europe, penalties for not meeting the regulator’s requirements are about 3x higher than e.g. in the UK or Turkey, creating a real threat of traffic leakage: routes shifting to cheaper non-EU hubs as mandatory SAF quotas climb toward 35% by 2050. 

Why eSAF is the path forward

Bio-SAF may be the only option available today, but its future is constrained. Most of it relies on a single feedstock, used cooking oil, which is often questioned in origin, and cannot scale with global aviation growth due to the limited feedstock sources. Rising demand under regulation will push bio-SAF prices higher, while also intensifying the food vs. fuel debate, as crops and residues are diverted from food supply chains to fuel production.

Electrified SAF, by contrast, is made from unlimited inputs - CO₂ from air, green hydrogen from water, and renewable electricity. While still costly today, it is the only pathway that can scale indefinitely and secure the volumes aviation needs without feedstock limits.

The long-term risk

If eSAF prices stay this high due to non-efficient technologies, compliance becomes a cost trap. Airlines in stricter markets will lose competitiveness, while those without affordable SAF access risk losing both customers due to being pressured in higher ticket prices and inclusion in global flight networks due to heavy fining for these certain regions. 

Where Greenlyte comes in

We enable eSAF production at the cost airlines need to stay competitive. By combining Direct Air Capture and hydrogen production in one renewable-powered process, we remove the inefficiencies of conventional e-SAF routes. This is what drives our cost advantage: our core process alone delivers the needed carbon & hydrogen feedstocks at ~€1,400/t in 2030, falling to ~€750/t by 2050 with them being the most dominant cost driver in the production process. 

With synthesis and project costs included, our total price path comes to:

• ~€3000/t by 2030 - competitive with fossil kerosene (including penalties) and biogenic routes like Bio-SAF and eSAF from point source 
• ~€1500/t by 2050 - cheapest SAF (compared to biogenic routes) 

Why now 

Airlines need SAF to meet mandates, but they also need it at a price that keeps them competitive in the long run. Costly feedstock-based SAF risks becoming a trap; the right path is eSAF from unlimited resources. 

Greenlyte delivers exactly that: a technology that closes the cost gap, safeguards competitiveness, and turns regulation into an advantage. 

By partnering with us today, airlines secure future-proof access to eSAF at prices built to match and beat fossil kerosene. More than a supplier, Greenlyte is the catalyst of the e-fuel economy - enabling the foundation for competitive, scalable fuels that will power aviation for decades to come.